2016 bellwether counties

Will Democrats Rally Behind President Biden In 2024? But in 2020, 18 of these 19 bellwether counties voted for former President Donald Trump. The same can be said for the three states listed in the meme. 3. Have information that relates to fraud in this election? From his tweet: From 1984 through 2016, spanning presidential elections, seventeen US counties in several states ad voted for the winning presidential candidate in an astounding 148 of 153 times including 100% five times for five different presidents: Advertisement - story continues below 1984 Reagan 1996 Clinton 2000 Bush 2012 Obama 2016 Trump Follow us on Telegram to be notified when we release the remaining articles. So, where are the bellwether counties? It won't be enough for Trump; he also needs to likely win by more than Romney did in Brown (Green Bay) and drive up turn out in Waukesha, one of the reddest and most populous counties in the state. These key counties are telling the story of America's shifting Click on the relevant state then look for the county name.). Just one Clallam County, Washington voted for President Joe Biden. Trump gave them hope. Of course, bellwethers are bellwethers until they aren't. Cable news loves to point to Vigo County, Indiana on election night coverage because Indiana is one of the first two states to close its polls and it has . Trumps local ties notwithstanding, Clinton is likely to run up her numbers here in the northernmost part of the South Florida region. On Dec. 1, formerAttorney General William Barr also told the Associated Pressthe U.S. Justice Department had uncovered no such evidence. They were particularly representative in 2012, when the average 1980-to-2016 bellwether county was just 0.8 points more Democratic than the nation. "There is no evidence that any voting system deleted or lost votes, changed votes, or was in any way compromised," they concluded. This well-educated, high-income and increasingly diverse D.C. exurb (Asians and Latinos togther make up a third of this county) went for Obama twice and roughly reflected the statewide margin. This is a fairly small county, but we couldn't resist the toll of this bellwether. With such overwhelming Democrat support in 2008, one can only surmise that ALL these 25 counties would have switched back to the Democrat party in 2020. The coalition which includedthe Department of Homeland Security's Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency and the National Association of State Election Directors also noted that all states with close results had paper records of each vote. Co., as its sometimes referred to, has gone more closely for the statewide winner than any other big county. 2012 National and State PVI Bellwether Counties for All 50 States Combined, they had more than twice the votes of Denver proper and 30 percent of all the votes statewide. That is 19 counties still standing after 10 elections! Third, it lists the fractionof bellwether counties each candidate won Obama at 18 of 19, Trump at 18 of 19 and Biden at one of 19. Seven counties, including Vigo, have got it right in the past dozen elections. That includes10elections, includingObama in 2008 and Trump in 2016. He would have to really drive up big margins in the less populous counties in the mountainous Western part of the state, as well as Chesterfield (south of Richmond) and Virginia Beach. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 51%-47% - 2008: Obama 53%-46%. Especially since Biden received million more votes than Obama did in 2008. In 132 years, no president has received more votes in his run for reelection and lost. Still, the state's worth watching. Of their nineteen bellwethers, only Essex County, Vermont can be considered as a political competitive county. Latest voter registration totals: Unaffiliated: 49,026Democrats: 40,563Republicans: 35,146. Side note Could the Florida Keys tell us who wins? Want to dive deeper? The Americans who almost always predict the president With a total turnout. A majority of voters here had backed the eventual winner of presidential elections every time since 1964. While local Republican Party candidates enjoyed a bump in local media coverage for opening a new headquarters last summer, Democrats were facing vastly different circumstances. This fact check is available at IFCNs 2020 US Elections FactChat #Chatbot on WhatsApp. Mr Biden "never thought he was going to bring Ohio; he didn't put the effort in," says Democrat John Brikmanis from Oak Harbor in Ottawa County, and who ran unsuccessfully for the position of county clerk last month. running an event, collecting and distributing information, Canvassing: Alarming Results in Multiple States, Identify Electoral Fraud Using Trend Analysis, The Curious Case of the 2020 Voting Rate Blowouts, How to Predict Election Results Using Registration Data, The Counties Where Votes and Party Registrations Don't Align, Investigating the Large Democrat Vote Increases, USEIPs Election Fraud Data Analytics Guide, 2000 Mules: Video Evidence of Ballot Trafficking, Voting Machines Lacking EAC Accreditation, List of Legislators Supporting Election Audits, Forensic Analysis of Mesa County Machine Images, A Vote Trafficking Parable, by David K. Clements, Identifying Electoral Fraud Using Trend Analysis, View the County & Local Organizing Playbook, Find the latest updates on our Telegram channel, Bellwether counties are not just statistical curiosities, The odds of 21 (out of 22) of these counties getting it wrong is, We have identified and analyzed the best of the best bellwether counties at predicting an election outcome, and examined their trends in 2020. . Where Did All The Bellwether Counties Go? Obama won both with 56 percent; if Trump is making them competitive, that could mean Iowa goes his way. Arguably, it was 2016 and not 2020 when bellwether counties first showed signs of falling by the wayside, given their dramatic swing to the right in that election. Home to Davenport, the states third-largest city, Scott County is also packed with independents who can swing either way. So we took 15 of the states where this election has been hotly waged and identified one county in each that has gone with the winner or closely reflected the statewide margin in each. All Rights Reserved. Instead, you can Find the latest updates on our Telegram channel which has more recent updates. What are the odds of getting 21 heads or 21 tails? John King has identified as key in the 2016 election. In other words, only 54 percent of bellwether counties from 1980 to 2012 kept their status in 2016. Marcela Stewart speaks to a voter at an event to encourage minority voter turnout n Cutler Bay, Fla., on Sunday. She says that previously, "when there was a presidential election, people are watching, paying attention, and as soon as the president is elected, they forget [about politics] until it's election time again". Winnebago County: A large bellwether county in east-central Wisconsin, Mr. Trump won it in 2016, but in 2018 Democrats running for governor and the Senate performed much better. She also has to run up the score in Franklin (Columbus, home to Ohio State University). Until this year. For a minute in this campaign, it looked like it could be a fairly close race in Texas, even within 5 points. Below are 10 bellwether counties that could give signs as to how the electorate feels this cycle and in future races. The matters that way on their minds are real. For the mathematically-minded: the table below shows that county outcomes do loosely follow a random outcome, up until a point. The most impressive of those was Valencia County, New Mexico, which voted for the victor in every presidential election from 1952 to 2016. The idea being these counties are good at sensing a change of sentiment and will happily vote for whichever party makes the most sense to them. This Gulf Coast county is home to Tampa and has gone with the statewide winner in every presidential election since 1960. The fourth-largest county in the state, its home to the Green Bay Packers, which are a huge economic engine. But both are worth watching. In fact, they became even more Republican the average bellwether county from 1980 to 2016 voted 18.2 points to the right of the nation. Lets quickly recap what we have established so far: In this post we will further relax the constraint by analyzing counties that voted Democrat in 2008 and Republican in 2016 only; that is, the switch counties in the most recent elections. They simply vote on merit. 2016 primary winners: Clinton, Cruz2012: Obama 53%, Romney 46%, Latestvoter registration totals:Democrats: 101,967Republicans: 75,145Unaffiliated:65,344Libertarian: 1,022. (The highest value being 66.1%), When sorted from the highest to lowest Democrat percentage vote (at the 2008 election), we can see that there are 25 counties that have a percentage Democrat vote greater than 60% at the 2008 election. If you take a coin and flip it 22 times. Second, the meme includes the number of counties each candidate won Obama at 873, Trump at 2,497 and Biden at 477. As the country's demographics shift and the rural-urban divide becomes more pronounced, the chances appear slim. This county voted with the popular vote each time. The key is going to be what kind of floor McMullin has statewide and Trump's ceiling. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 52%-47% - 2008: Obama 55%-44%. Will they vote for the winner in 2016? Clinton has to hit that margin in this county where more than half a million people voted. What are your thoughts on this article? Their finger was so tightly on the pulse of America that they not only picked the winner each time, but managed to accurately flip parties four times in that period. Published Nov. 8, 2016 at 5:30 a.m. Democrats Woodrow Wilson, John F. Kennedy, Bill Clinton and Grover Cleveland (twice) won elections while losing ground in the House, per The Atlantic. Clinton will win Democratic Clark County, the states population hub and home to Las Vegas. During the campaign Mrs Day-Baker says that local Democrats organised a "Ridin' for Biden" parade of vehicles through parts of the county. Other counties to watch: Nowhere is more important than Polk (Des Moines). All other 21 counties voted Republican. Eastern Iowa is often seen as Democratic turf -- the last 4 Democratic presidential nominees have won Scott County. We sorted the counties from highest to lowest Democrat percentage vote (in the 2008 election). Watch the Philadelphia suburbs, and that means white women. Demographically, the bellwether counties tended to be whiter, older, less . BBC Reality Check breaks down the bill for the world's most expensive election, Arriving at a voting station to observe as a poll challenger on 4 November last, she sat down next to two people she didn't know. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 52%-46% - 2008: Obama 54%-44%. Pittsburghs Allegheny County, the second-most populous county in the state after Philadelphia, is heavily Democratic. Sitting at the same Kozy Corners diner table that president Barack Obama ate from when on his own re-election campaign in July 2012, Mr Brikmanis, a lawyer, believes local Democrats' failure to get votes is also linked to the broader economic decline being experienced by rural and rust belt communities across the Midwest. It's something Joan Day-Baker, chair of Valencia County's Democratic Party, has witnessed first-hand. A caveat: because its black population is higher than the state average (21 percent versus 13 percent), the county has gone narrowly for Democrats even in 2004 and 2000 when George W. Bush won the state. It went with the exact margin for Romney in 2012 statewide and McCain statewide in 2008. You can subscribe to our print edition, ad-free app or electronic newspaper replica here. These former bellwether counties are much whiter and less college-educated than the country as a whole. In 2020,Biden received81,281,888 votes andTrump received74,223,251 votes, according to a tally byUSA TODAY. The percentage of people with college degrees here is two-thirds higher than the rest of the state. There are numerous theories about why it happened in 2020. Lake County is a perpetual nail-biter. | AP Photo, By Darren Samuelsohn, Katie Glueck, Kyle Cheney and Daniel Strauss. In total, Trump won 18 of the 19 former bellwether counties, winning the average such county by 13.7 points in 2020. The 2020 election appears to illustrate that the partisanship that's defined politics in Washington for years has now spread to small-town America.

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