What would we come up with ourselves starting with first principles, making some reasonable assumptions and putting them all together? 7 distinct works Similar authors. Id gladly take those odds over trying to become a millionaire in any other country. Author and blogger Dr. Ali Binazir did the calculations last spring and decided that the chances of anyone existing are one in 102,685,000. Thats a ridiculously huge number. Borels Law has since been enlisted by creationists and evolutionists alike to bolster their arguments. On one try. Dr. On one try. In it, she mentioned that scientists calculate the probability of your existing as you, today, at about one in 400 trillion (410 14). So the probability of that one sperm with half your name on it hitting that one egg with the other half of your name on it is one in 400 quadrillion. Because the fact that your baby to be is a miracle is not just a religious ideaits science. Probability of same boy knocking up same girl: one in 2000. Namely, that every one of your ancestors lived to reproductive age going all the way back not just to the first Homo sapiens, first Homo erectus and Homo habilis, but all the way back to the first single-celled organism. Heres Dr. Ali Binazir on the probability of a human being born: Its the probability of 2.5 million people getting together about the population of San Diego each to play a game of dice with trillion-sided dice. It turns out that when taking into account the astonishing number of possibilities of parents meeting, grandparents meeting before them, and so on going back generations, and then adding the vast number of sperm and ova in possible combinations over decades of the marital act in all those generations, the odds of me existing just as I do are about 1 in 102,685,000. The chances of that turning into another meeting is about 1 in 10. Or are we glorious accidents, each and every one? Otherwise they'd be different people, and so would their children, who would then have had children who were similar to you but not quite you. Or could they be underestimates of the true number? Dr. Binazir is an author and personal change specialist who studied at Harvard, received a medical degree from the University of California, and studied philosophy at Cambridge University. The perfect deal in bridge is that each player receives all the cards in one suit. One of my brothers made his own calculation regarding one of Binazirs assumptions and came up with a figure that would make the probability of existence even smaller: My numbers are more simplistic, but assuming 100,000 eggs/woman & 12 trillion sperm/man creates 1.2 x 10^18 combinations for every man/woman pairing (i.e., significantly more combinations than the 400 trillion or 4 x 10^14 mentioned in the article). Now lets say the chances of them actually talking to one another is one in 10. It seems like wasting our precious lives on self pity or addiction is even less attractive, in this light. And worry and fear? That means in every step of your lineage, the probability of the right sperm meeting the right egg such that the exact right ancestor would be created that would end up creating you is one in 400 quadrillion. Turtle sticking his head out of that life preserver is simply the area inside the life preserver divided by the total area of all oceans, or about 1 in 700 trillion. He concluded that the chances of a turtle sticking its head out in the middle of the life preserver was about one in 700 trillion. A little while ago I had the privilege of attending TEDx San Francisco, organized by the incomparable Christine Mason McCaull.. One of the talks was by Mel Robbins, a riotously funny self-help author and life coach with a syndicated radio show. It makes me want to love better, to hug my baby more, to appreciate the miracles in my life, my family, my friends, my teachers, The animals, plants, precious food, the bugs and butterflies. You are not here by luck; you are here by the grace and will of God. Step 4. 1/(100,000)(4 trillion)= 1/(105)(41012)= 1 in 4 x 1017, or one in 400 quadrillion. Or are we some mysterious combination of impossible and inevitable? In 1943, the distinguished French mathematician mile Borel developed a law about probabilities that stated events with a sufficiently small probability never occur (Institute of Mathematical Statistics). So whats the probability of your existing? Say humans or humanoids have been around for about 3 million years, and that a generation is about 20 years. So let's say the probability of your parents meeting, ever, is 10,000 divided by 200 million, or one in 20,000. The good news is that the fee is only $10 per class 10-20x cheaper than therapy, and probably more effective. By continuing to use our site, you accept our use of cookies, revised Privacy Policy and Terms of Use. The chances of your specific sperm meeting your specific egg? (This is also known as consulting especially if you show it all in a PowerPoint deck.). Because were about to deal with eggs and sperm, which come in large numbers. By that definition, Ive just proven that you are a miracle. Contributors control their own work and posted freely to our site. This post was published on the now-closed HuffPost Contributor platform. Go crazy with those celebrations, new parents to be. As a comparison, the number of atoms in the body of an average male (80kg, 175 lb) is 1027. Now go forth and feel and act like the miracle that you are., Buddhists have talked of the preciousness of this incarnation. So the probability of your parents' chance meeting resulting in kids is about one in 2000. The chances of that turning into another meeting is about 1 in 10. Again, it is similar to the probability of winning the Loto: while my chances of winning are very small, the probability of someone (or someones) winning are much higher. To further awaken to the miracle that is you, get The Tao of Dating: The Smart Woman's Guide to Being Absolutely Irresistible, now available in book, ebook, Kindle, audiobook, and Sinai indestructible stone tablet. Otherwise theyd be different people, and so would their children, who would then have had children who were similar to you but not quite you. The Arena Media Brands, LLC and respective content providers to this website may receive compensation for some links to products and services on this website. Say that over the course of all human existence, the likelihood of any one human offspring to survive childhood and live to reproductive age and have at least one kid is 50:50 1 in 2. Copyright 2000 - 2023 The Epoch Times Association Inc. All Rights Reserved. Now go forth and feel and act like the miracle that you are. And the chances of that lasting long enough to result in offspring is one in 2. Dr Ali Binazir is the author of the 'The Tao of Dating: The Smart Woman's Guide to Being Absolutely Irresistible', the highest-rated dating book on Amazon.co. Or could they be underestimates of the true number? Probability of boy meeting girl: one in 20,000. Its not cheesy to be grateful to be alive, if you look at the facts, it should be normal. First, let us figure out the probability of one turtle sticking its head out of the one life preserver we toss out somewhere in the ocean. That is, instead of making one big hand-waving gesture and pronouncing, "The answer is 500 squintillion," we make a series of sequentially-reasoned, smaller hand-waving gestures so as to make it all seem scientific. And lets say the fly decides to bring the ENTIRE MOON back to the Earth, one grain of sand at a time. The odds of you being born as you are about 1 in 400 trillion, or more. Ali Binazir (Author of The Tao Of Dating) - Goodreads I hope you use your chance well. Lets say the fly takes a brief respite of one million years between trips. That's 150,000 generations. Imagine there was one life preserver thrown somewhere in some ocean, with exactly one turtle in all of these oceans, swimming underwater somewhere. The chances that they would then get knocked up? Pretty darn close, for such an unusual calculation. Borels Law is about the probability of events occurring. Thus, my existence depends on a vast number of meetings going just right; if they hadnt I would never have been born. A man will produce about 12 trillion sperm over the course of his reproductive lifetime. You are a representative of an unbroken lineage of life going back 4 billion years. Or is it possible that they are underestimates of the true number? As a comparison, the approximate number of atoms in the known universe is 10. Having said that, Monsignor Popes reflection should spur us to consider that while the Mind of God could think of a nearly infinite number of souls to create, he chose to create you and I. Step 1. This video makes a moving point, but it attributes our existence to luck. Popes point: that we are not accidents, that God chose to create you and [me]. No need for caution about drawing any conclusion other that the one he quite explicitly drew. So now we must account for that for 150,000 generations by raising 400 quadrillion to the 150,000th power: Thats a ten followed by 2,640,000 zeroes, which would fill 11 volumes of a book the size of mine with zeroes. So the combined probability is already around one in 40 million -- long but not insurmountable odds. According to WolframAlpha, the total area of oceans in the world is 341 million km (131.6 million square miles). Scientists have calculated the odds of a human being born as at least 1 in 400 trillion. The numbers are getting plenty huge as it is. If one square kilometer is a million square meters, then the probability of Mr Turtle sticking his head out of that life preserver is simply the area inside the life preserver divided by the total area of all oceans, or. The probability that you came about and exist today is the same as that turtle sticking its head out of the water into the middle of that life preserver. Multiplying it all together for the sake of completeness (Step 1 x Step 2 x Step 3 x Step 4): Probability of your being born: one in 10. (This is also known as "consulting" -- especially if you show it all in a PowerPoint deck.). This button displays the currently selected search type. Let's not get carried away here; we'll just deal with the human lineage. But Im not mathy. Scott and Janice Huse, in their 1997 book The Collapse of Evolution, state that It is very significant to note that mathematicians generally consider that any event with a probability of one chance [in] 10^50 as having a zero probability (i.e. You are wonderfully and fearfully made, and God has done a marvelous thing. It's the probability of 2.5 million people getting together -- about the population of San Diego -- each to play a game of dice with trillion-sided dice. First, let us figure out the probability of one turtle sticking its head out of the one life preserver we toss out somewhere in the ocean. Seriously, look around, look up to the sky, take this all in. If they met one new person of the opposite sex every day from age 15 to 40, that would be about 10,000 people. You have lived your life. What impresses me is that at the moment our parents came together to form us, the Creator of the Universe stopped what He was doing to give, to each and every one of us, a soul unique to itself. Its maddening to see people worry so much. And the chances of that turning into a long-term relationship is also one in 10. We might not all like the cards we were dealt in life, but it is our choice to play what weve been given or to go on blaming our lot which is wanting more power, but giving up any power we already have. Lets confine the pool of possible people they could meet to 1/10 of the worlds population twenty years go (one tenth of 4 billion = 400 million) so it considers not just the population of the US but that of the places they could have visited. Visions in Lent: Family Life As a Seen in a Rock Tumbler. The chances of that lasting long enough to result in offspring is 1 in 2. dr ali binazir odds of being born - sindicaturarosarito.gob.mx A miracle is an event so unlikely as to be almost impossible. So now we must account for those 150,000 generations by raising 400 quadrillion to the 150,000 power: That's a ten followed by 2,640,000 zeroes, which would fill 11 volumes the size of my book. Thank you, Monsignor. Who knows, maybe the ball that vanished into childhood's thicket? So the combined probability is already around 1 in 40 million long but not insurmountable odds. Perhaps three years ago or just last Tuesday a certain leaf fluttered from one shoulder to another? Now things start getting interesting. Why? The odds of red or black are 50:50 with each spin of the wheel. Opportunity - livebendy.com And the chances of that turning into a long-term relationship is also one in 10. This is also true of your grandparents parents, and their grandparents, and so on till the beginning of time. The number of atoms making up the earth is about 1050. So the probability of your parents' chance meeting resulting in kids is about 1 in 2000. So to the second question: how accurate is this number? I was toying with this other idea, about an owl who falls in love with a cat and brings it mice every day. That is, instead of making one big hand-waving gesture and pronouncing, The answer is five hundred bazillion squintillion, we make a series of sequentially-reasoned, smaller hand-waving gestures so as to make it all seem scientific. In a recent talk at TEDx San Francisco, Mel Robbins, a riotously funny self-help author, mentioned that scientists estimate the probability of your being born at about one in 400 trillion. Thats 150,000 generations. So the probability of that one sperm with half your name on it hitting that one egg with the other half of your name on it is one in 400 quadrillion. Turtle sticking his head out of that life preserver is simply the area inside the life preserver divided by the total area of all oceans, or about 1 in 700 trillion. Not only are you and I contingent, we are highly improbable! But lets think about this some more. Yes, it is clear the 'opportunity' of born is complete chance and luck. You can consider using our babies name resource to choose baby at 12 weeks old that suits your needs! Or, the total number of seconds that have elapsed since the Big Bang is 10x 16 th power. Similarly, Dr. Ali Binazir, in his article for The Huffington Post, has a clever calculation that resulted in his estimate that the probability of being born is 1 in 10 2,685,000 . If I had 400 trillion pennies, I could probably build a decent-sized penny fortress with it. Here it should be realize it is a quest work. I am only publishing a small number of his musings, but you can read his full article here: What Are the Chances of You Being Born?. He attended the Ted Talk and wrote about it afterward, doing his own calculations on how likely your existence is. You are a representative of an unbroken lineage of life going back 4 billion years. Imagine there was one life preserver thrown somewhere in some ocean, with exactly one turtle in all of these oceans, swimming underwater somewhere. Well then, that would be one in 2 , which is about one in 10 -- a number so staggeringly large that my head hurts just writing it down. We do not only have common English names, but also uncommon ones that have unique origins and meanings. Be True to YOU (there is no one else like you, if there was they would have been born and not you), Odds of Being Born Infographic by Designer Sofya Yampolsky. Probability of every one of your ancestors reproducing successfully: one in 10. On one try.. To get the final answer, technically we need to multiply that by the 1045,000 , 2000 and 20,000 up there, but those numbers are so shrimpy in comparison that it almost doesnt matter. So what's the probability of your being born? Probability of right sperm meeting right egg: one in 400 quadrillion. A lovely day to you. Even if they couldn't read them yet. A man will produce about 12 trillion sperm over the course of his reproductive lifetime. it is impossible)., The astronomer Sir Fred Hoyle illustrated this with his Junkyard Tornado Theory: The chance that higher life forms might have emerged in this way is comparable to the chance that a tornado sweeping through a junkyard might assemble a Boeing 747 from the materials therein.. This is also true of their parents, and so on till the beginning of time. Onward to freedom! They each roll the dice and they all come up with the exact same number for example, 550,343,279,001. Dr. Ali Binazir. Now go forth and feel and act like the miracle that you are. The odds of being murdered are relatively low when compared to other possible causes of death. 2023 BuzzFeed, Inc. All rights reserved. But, once we are born, we have an incredible opportunity to create our future . How do you deal with a confirmed bachelor?, 9 Reasons Why Men Lose Interest and What You Can Do About It. So to the second question: how accurate is this number? That's a pretty straightforward calculation. So the combined probability is already around one in 40 million -- long but not insurmountable odds. For a more thorough discussion of this topic, visit the Tao of Dating and Awaken Your Genius blogs. To illustrate how precious each human being is, self-help author Mel Robbins said during a 2011 Ted Talk that the likelihood of you being born as you has been calculated at about one in 400 trillion. What are the odds of that? So, thats 28,800 events a day, adding up to a million in 35 days. Gamblers always play the odds; their lives revolve around probabilities, and that has led many into dark places. By all accounts, you shouldnt even be here. *wink wink* Well, hello thereBom chicka wow wowits: The chance of every one of your ancestors outrunning dinosaurs, disease, war and pestilence to live to reproductive age and reproduce successfully is one in 10. It would be your cousin Jethro, and you never really liked him anyway. It is the probability of 2 million people getting together each to play a game of dice with trillion-sided dice. Think of yourself as dead. However, as the astute who do exist will have observed, extremely improbable events do actually occur. Check out my course, The RecovHer Freedom Breakthrough at the top of the page. Dr. Binazir calculated that the odds against each of us being born produced a number that makes the brain hurt. dr ali binazir odds of being born. First, let us figure out the probability of one turtle sticking its head out of the one life preserver we toss out somewhere in the ocean. Gather your loved ones around and give props to your incredibly resilient and badass survivor ancestors, while you explode your gender revel confetti poppers. Miebakagh Fiberesima from Port Harcourt, Rivers State, NIGERIA. This book will rapidly bring you up to speed on epidemiology and pandemic management. The Cycle of Hatred and Revenge Ends With Me A Homily for the 7th Sunday of the Year. The Probability of You Existing at All Is Unbelievably Low
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