Alejandro Murguia-Ortiz(Independent), No candidates filed for the Democratic primary, K. Lynn Evans top: 2px; These same counties favored Biden over Trump in 2020 by a margin of 8 percentage points a whopping 19-point swing. Iowa Senate Election Results for the 2022 primary election. padding-left: 16px; Races to watch include those in the 17th, 18th, 19th and 22nd Congressional Districts, as well as the contest for governor. While Tuesdays election represented a strong performance by a first-term presidents party, the individual showings of Senate candidates varied widely. Five other districts were open due to redistricting moving incumbents into districts with other incumbents. chevron.removeClass('fa-chevron-up'); padding-bottom: 8px; What was the absentee/mail-in ballot request deadline? Design and development by Ryan Best, Aaron Bycoffe, Christopher Groskopf, Ritchie King, Ella Koeze, Dhrumil Mehta, Jasmine Mithani, Mary Radcliffe, Anna Wiederkehr and Julia Wolfe. The table below details the signature requirements necessary for obtaining ballot access by petition. There were four incumbent versus incumbent contests in Iowa this year. Virginias Seventh District is one of three races in the state that could offer an early sign of whether the Democrats can retain control of the House. Some states and some individual counties provide results broken down by type of ballot cast, which can include Election Day votes, or those cast early, either in person or by mail. Federal government. Here's why", "Campaign Almanac: Nagle endorses Franken for US Senate", "Former Iowa ag secretary endorses Franken", "Campaign Almanac: Two TV debates set for Iowa's U.S. Senate Democratic primary", "Endorsements - Admiral Franken for Iowa", "Mike Franken joins race for Democratic nomination to challenge Chuck Grassley", "Campaign Almanac: Pence to join Feenstra at 4th District convention", "Press-Citizen editorial board endorses Franken, Bohannan", "Editorial: Franken for Senate - Storm Lake Times Pilot", "Franken will be an effective leader for Iowa", "Journal Editorial Board endorses Franken, Reynolds, Feenstra for U.S. Senate, Iowa 4th district, Iowa governor", "Campaign Almanac: STEM group backs Franken in Senate race", "End Citizens United // Let America Vote Endorses Admiral Mike Franken for U.S. Senate", "LCV Action Fund Endorses Admiral Franken for Senate", "VoteVets Announces Final Endorsements of the Quarter", https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=2022_United_States_Senate_election_in_Iowa&oldid=1137376978, This page was last edited on 4 February 2023, at 08:46. Thats down slightly from the 54% of women who favored Franken in October. letter-spacing: .04em; . display: block; A NPPO candidate can gain ballot access in this manner if the NPPO cannot meet the convention attendance requirements described above. votes. Jen Kiggans, Republican, wins U.S. House seat to represent Virginias Second Congressional District. Reporting by Grace Ashford, Maggie Astor, Michael C. Bender, Sarah Borell, Sarah Cahalan, Emily Cochrane, Nick Corasaniti, Jill Cowan, Catie Edmondson, Reid J. Epstein, Nicholas Fandos, Lalena Fisher, Trip Gabriel, Katie Glueck, J. David Goodman, Blake Hounshell, Shawn Hubler, Annie Karni, Maya King, Stephanie Lai, Lisa Lerer, Jonathan Martin, Patricia Mazzei, Alyce McFadden, Jennifer Medina, Azi Paybarah, Mitch Smith, Tracey Tully, Jazmine Ulloa, Neil Vigdor and Jonathan Weisman; production by Andy Chen, Amanda Cordero, Alex Garces, Chris Kahley, Laura Kaltman, Andrew Rodriguez and Jessica White; editing by Wilson Andrews, Kenan Davis, William P. Davis, Kennedy Elliott, Amy Hughes, Ben Koski, Allison McCartney and Karen Workman. Instantly compare a poll to prior one by same pollster. Senators serve four-year terms in single-member constituencies, with half of the seats up for election each cycle. During most general elections, 25 of the 50 seats are on the ballot. Could he really win? Iowa Party Control: 1992-2023 clear: both; width: 50px; margin-bottom: 4px; It could be awhile before all votes are counted. Republican John Duarte has inched in front of moderate Democrat Adam Gray, despite the fact this Central Valley district went for President Joe Biden by 11 points in 2020 . max-height: 355px; chevron.addClass('fa-chevron-up'); .non_result_row { Brianne Pfannenstiel is the chief politics reporter for the Register. Lazaro Gamio .votebox, .race_header, .results_text, .results_table_container, .votebox_legend { , Frank J. Mrvan, Democrat, wins re-election to the U.S. House to represent Indianas First Congressional District. One of the tightest governors races in the country is between Gov. Maggie Astor The Iowa State Senate was one of 88 state legislative chambers holding elections in 2022. VoterInfobyState_Toggle = true; Senator Raphael Warnock of Georgia is one of the most vulnerable Democrats in the Senate. A state government trifecta is a term that describes single-party government, when one political party holds the governor's office and has majorities in both chambers of the legislature in a state government. Anthony LaBruna, Dave Rowley(i) But independent likely voters have now swung in favor of Grassley. Maura Healey, the newly elected Democratic governor of Massachusetts is the first openly lesbian woman to be elected governor in the United States. padding-bottom: 8px; Whenever that information is widely available in a state on election night, NBC News will display it. display: flex; Nov. 9, 2022, House districts rated as tossups have been called mostly in favor of Democrats so far, with one state as a glaring exception: New York. Results based on smaller samples of respondents such as by gender or age have a larger margin of error. Tonight, our election forecast will show live estimates for which party is favored to win control in the Senate and House. .non_result_row th { } chevron = $(this).find('i.fa-pull-right'); The Iowa Poll, conducted October 31-November 3, 2022, for the Des Moines Register and Mediacom by Selzer & Co. of Des Moines, is based on telephone interviews with 801 Iowans ages 18 or older. Click a link below to read survey responses from candidates in that district: Three incumbents lost in the Nov. 8 general election. font-weight: bold; This may result in instances where multiple incumbents face each other in contested primaries or general elections if the incumbent in the new district also seeks re-election. The new poll shows demographic groups that have traditionally made up the Iowa Republican Partys base have coalesced around Grassley, along with independent voters who have shifted toward the senator. margin-right: 10px; Representative Sean Patrick Maloney has conceded defeat to Mike Lawler, a first-term Republican state assemblyman. vertical-align: top; }. , Raphael Warnock, Democrat, advances to a runoff election for the U.S. Senate seat in Georgia. Grassley leads Franken 53% to 41% among Iowans who already have voted or who say they will definitely vote, the poll shows. .non_result_row div { And among men, its up from 56% to 59%. } Hes outperforming Biden across the state and is currently up 8 points in counties that were the closest in 2020. Nov. 9, 2022, Alaska has competitive races for both the Senate and the House, neither of which is a straightforward Democrat-versus-Republican affair. Taking control of the governorship and both legislative chambers in these states could ease Democrats ability to pass legislation on an array of issues. } Nov. 8, 2022, If Democrats hold onto two seats leaning their way, they will need to win three additional tossup seats to maintain control of the Senate. In the weeks since, support for Grassley has risen among the demographic groups that traditionally have made up the Iowa Republican Partys base. Nov. 8, 2022, These charts show how the reported vote margin (the dashed line) compares with our estimated final margin (the solid line, surrounded by bands of uncertainty) over time. . Dont expect quick results in either race; officials in Alaska wont finish counting absentee ballots for about two weeks. PublishedNovember 8, 2022 at 9:18 AM CST, How to select the right seeds for your garden, Hawkeye football coaches dropped from racial discrimination lawsuit, Rebecca Makkai's smart, prep school murder novel is self-aware about the 'ick' factor, Eli Lilly cuts the price of insulin, capping drug at $35 per month out-of-pocket, Election Results: Gov. DES MOINES - Secretary of State Paul Pate announces 34 State Senate seats will be up for election in Iowa this year. .thirdpartyname:not(:first-child) { In 2020, Virginias early vote for president favored Republicans, while Pennsylvanias skewed toward Democrats. Colorados Third District is leaning toward Lauren Boebert, an ardent supporter of Donald Trump, according to our estimates. } Voters in these counties overall continued to support the Democratic candidate for governor, Beto ORourke. He also does well with those who have at least a college degree (48%), those who live in cities (50%) and the small group of those who live in suburbs (48%). Alicia Parlapiano Nov. 8, 2022, Six of the eight most competitive Senate races are in states that did not call a winner in the presidential race until after election night: Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Maggie Astor Independents are notoriously fickle, Selzer said. The Iowa State Senate was one of 88 state legislative chambers holding elections in 2022. Senator Patrick Leahy retiring the same year, he became the second-oldest person ever to be re-elected for another term (behind Strom Thurmond in 1996 at age 93), the most senior member in the Senate, the longest-serving Republican Senator in history (overtaking Orrin Hatch), as well as the most senior member of Congress. Incumbents are marked with an (i) after their name. The deadline to file the convention certificate and affidavit of candidacy is the same as the general election filing deadline. .votebox-results-cell--number { These are detailed below. Grassleys longevity isnt enough to persuade Donner to change his vote, however. Typically, 25 would be up for election each two-year cycle. border: 1px solid #999;
}, ToyA S. Johnson(Libertarian Party) chevron = $(this).find('i.fa-pull-right'); Kennedy Elliott $("div.vis_widget_title").each(function(index) { What was the voter registration deadline? .race_footer { Nov. 9, 2022, More than 210 Republicans who questioned the 2020 election have won seats in the U.S. House and Senate and in state races for governor, secretary of state and attorney general, according to results as of 12 p.m. Eastern on Wednesday. padding-left: 10px; The House of Representatives and Iowa Senate combined represent the legislative branch of Iowa government. Scholten won't seek office in 2022, narrowing field of possible contenders", "What went right for Mike Franken and wrong for Abby Finkenauer", "Campaign Almanac: Loebsack endorses Finkenauer", "Campaign Almanac: Fitzgerald endorses Finkenauer", "Campaign Almanac: Former Iowa Senate leader endorses Finkenauer for U.S. Senate", "Campaign Almanac: Union endorses Finkenauer", "Democrats question Mariannette Miller-Meeks' finances", "Campaign Almanac for Wednesday, September 22, 2021", "Campaign Almanac for Tuesday, September 7, 2021", "USW Proudly Endorses Abby Finkenauer for Senate", "Iowa Democrat Abby Finkenauer backed by EMILY's List in Senate race", "2022 Feminist Majority PAC Endorsements", "Giffords PAC Endorses Abby Finkenauer for US Senate", "LCV ACTION FUND ANNOUNCES FIRST ROUND OF NON-INCUMBENT SENATE ENDORSEMENTS", "Campaign Almanac: Abby Finkenauer poll shows her with strong lead in Iowa U.S. Senate primary race", "Former President Donald Trump endorses Iowa Sen. Chuck Grassley: 'A great American patriot', "Democrat Max Baucus is endorsing Republican Chuck Grassley in his reelection bid. Even 11% of Franken supporters agree that Grassley is a better reflection of Iowa values. column indicates whether the incumbent running was the only incumbent seeking re-election in that district. Polls are now closed in Hawaii. And Franken, by comparison, it's more lukewarm among his base.. Read more State polling averages are adjusted based on national trends, which means candidates averages can shift even in the absence of fresh state polls. function widget_load_check_dom(){ October 16, 2022 05:57 PM. I dont think the Democrats need to be in control of the Senate, and I dont think they need to be in control of the House at this time. Grassley was reelected, thereby becoming the first Republican to win an eighth Senate term.[2]. Get live estimates for Senate and House control with our real-time election forecast, which analyzes the results so far to show who is on track to win. We use early returns and polling data to estimate in real time the outcome of the elections for Senate and House control. , Gov. I just think Grassleys a better choice than the Democrat, he said. column-gap: 1em; J.D. , George Santos, Republican, wins U.S. House seat to represent New Yorks Third Congressional District. @media only screen and (max-width: 600px) { Nov. 9, 2022, Democratic House candidates outperformed Biden in several Michigan districts, bucking a rightward trend and maintaining seven of their seats. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. chevron.addClass('fa-chevron-down'); Notice any bugs or missing polls? } Nov. 8, 2022, Its still early, but Fetterman is running ahead of Biden in five Pennsylvania counties that have reported nearly all of their votes. Franken gets 37%. Republicans have won in four of five New York tossup seats, and the Republican candidate is ahead in the fifth. Ruth Igielnik font-weight: 300; .leg-hnt-flex-row { document.getElementById('leg-hnt-content63ff7aa4eacea').classList.add('leg-hnt-hide'); Were tracking the remaining uncalled House races, and the most recently called races, as states continue to count the remaining votes. Democrats also won the Governors office, State Senate, and appear poised to take the State Assembly, and voters affirmed abortion rights in the state. Read more about the methodology. Nov. 8, 2022, Republicans are favored to win the open Senate races in North Carolina and Ohio, but if Democrats have a better-than-expected day, these are two places we might see evidence of it. } .leg-hnt-flex-column { Click here to contact us for media inquiries, and please donate here to support our continued expansion. Lauren Boebert, incumbent in Colorados 3rd district, is in an unexpectedly close race in what was considered a safe Republican district. [16] The legislature could only vote to approve or reject the maps and could not make any amendments. Grassley was first elected in 1980 and was most recently re-elected in 2016. Women favor Franken 50% to 46% over Grassley. [11], A candidate who is not affiliated with any political party or NPPO can be nominated by petition. The affidavit of candidacy and the nomination petition must be filed simultaneously.[6][7]. } NRSC is a partisan sponsor for the Republican Party (internal). margin-top: 5px; VoterInfobyState_Timeout_jquery = setTimeout(widget_load_check_jquery, 500); The winners of these eight seats will serve two-year terms. Elections for the Iowa State Senate took place in 2022. Nov. 8, 2022, The shift to the right has been dramatic among counties in Florida reporting nearly all their votes. } He gets not only the overall lead but the strong support of the people who are the core of his base. , Mike Garcia, Republican, wins re-election to the U.S. House to represent Californias 27th Congressional District. padding: 2px 0; } if (document.getElementById('leg-hnt-content63ff7aa4eacea').classList.contains('leg-hnt-hide')) { font-size: 20px; font-size: 0.9em; margin: 0; position: absolute; padding-top: 5px; .leg-hnt-leadership { Follow her on Twitter at@brianneDMR. In 2022, due to redistricting, 34 are up for election. "It's a seemingly insurmountable lead, though anything can happen, said pollster J. Ann Selzer, president of Selzer & Co. This is a very good poll for Chuck Grassley. This is our current best estimate for the outcome of this race. By 9 p.m., the polls will have closed in a majority of states. if ($('#vis_xs_indicator').is(':hidden')){ box-sizing: border-box; He said he doesnt think one party should control the House, the Senate and the presidency, as Democrats have for the past two years. Incumbent Republican Senator Chuck Grassley faced Democratic nominee Michael Franken . flex-wrap: wrap; Maggie Astor Nov. 9, 2022, Voters in three states enshrined lasting protections for abortion rights in their state Constitutions. DeSantis outperformed Trump in Florida in every county that has nearly finished counting votes. Maggie Astor The poll of 804 Iowa adults, including 620 likely voters, was conducted Oct. 9-12 by Selzer & Co. remaining 5,218) + all candidates. , David Schweikert, Republican, wins re-election to the U.S. House to represent Arizonas First Congressional District. Nov. 8, 2022, Nevada is the last big swing state of the day, and virtually everything is up for grabs: The races for Senate, three House seats, governor and secretary of state. Nov. 8, 2022, Arizona has multiple races featuring Republicans who have questioned the legitimacy of the 2020 election. Heres how it works Alicia Parlapiano overflow-y: auto; .leg-hnt-responsive-columns { Lazaro Gamio Read more Source 1 Source 2 Source 3. However the state already bans abortions, and that is unlikely to change. background-color: #6db24f; color:white; Reid Epstein June 7, 2022. , Vicente Gonzalez, Democrat, wins re-election to the U.S. House to represent Texas 34th Congressional District. Senator Charles E. Grassley easily won his Republican primary and is facing Mike Franken, a retired Navy admiral and Democrat. In Colorado, a measure to decriminalize certain psychedelics is close but yet to be decided. Presidential elections. font-size: 2em; Voters in Vermont decided in favor of including abortion protections in their state constitution. .leg-hnt-leadership-title { $(this).next('div.vis_widget_table').slideToggle('normal'); margin-bottom: .75em; background-color: #f9d334; chevron.addClass('fa-chevron-up'); In Virginia, the performances of Democratic incumbents in the 2nd and 7th districts may offer early indications of how the party will fare in House races overall. Indicates a polling average for this poll type Candidate is an incumbent Partisan types Democratic-funded Republican-funded Other party-funded Campaign. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/11/08/us/elections/results-iowa-us-senate.html. [4][5], A candidate seeking the nomination of a state-recognized political party in a primary election must be a member of that party. .race_header { Nationally, political analysts and other polling suggest the effects of this summers U.S. Supreme Court opinion reversing abortion rights have waned as voters focus more on issues such as inflation. Our average includes all candidates that FiveThirtyEight considers major. Candidates with insufficient polling data are not displayed in the averages. Nate Cohn Follow along here . Most polls have closed in Alaska, but Alaska doesnt release results until after its last polls close at 1 a.m. Eastern. Nov. 8, 2022, Democrat Tim Ryan leads Republican J.D. As a result, 22 of the 23 incumbents seeking re-election at the time of the primary filed to run in new districts different from those they represented before the election. Overall, 254 major party candidates filed: 112 Democrats and 142 Republicans. Albert Sun More than 210 Republicans who questioned the 2020 election have won seats in the U.S. House and Senate and in state races for governor, secretary of state and attorney general, according to . In addition to his overall advantage, Grassley leads Franken in each of seven character traits tested by the Iowa Poll. All of Iowa's executive officers were up for election, as well as a United States Senate seat, all four of Iowa's seats in the United States House of Representatives, 25 (half) of the seats in the Iowa Senate, and all 100 seats in the Iowa House of Representatives. [9], Non-party Political Organizations (NPPOs) are permitted to hold conventions to nominate their candidates. Iowa rearranged its Senate districts during the redistricting process after the 2020 census. margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; John Fetterman has been locked in a bitter contest against Mehmet Oz, the Republican celebrity doctor. } else { The Senate is comprised of 50 individuals, representing individual districts throughout Iowa. font-size: 12px; Rep. Ted Budd of North Carolina, a Trump-backed conservative, beat Cheri Beasley, a Democrat, to capture retiring Senator Richard Burr's seat. That candidate must then file a political party convention certificate and an affidavit of candidacy. Brad Price, Izaah Knox 2022 Latest Polls Election 2022 Polls | Senate Polls | House Polls | Governor Polls | 2024 Polls | State of Union Polls | All Latest Polls Thursday, December 1 Tuesday,. A primary election candidate must file an affidavit of candidacy and nomination petition with the Iowa Secretary of State during the primary election filing period, which begins 99 days before the primary and ends at 5 p.m. on the 81st day before the primary. On November 4, 2021, Iowa Gov. } Previous rating: Toss-Up. .leg-hnt-section-title { In Wisconsin, Senator Ron Johnson, a Republican, is up for re-election against Lt. Gov. For Democrats, this was up from 12 in 2020, an 8% increase. And Franken's lead with women is just 4 points.. Vance defeated Rep. Tim Ryan after a competitive campaign for Ohios open Senate seat. . , Brandon Williams, Republican, wins U.S. House seat to represent New Yorks 22nd Congressional District. Grace Van Cleave, Did not make the ballot: Susan Wild, Democrat, wins re-election to the U.S. House to represent Pennsylvanias Seventh Congressional District. Heres who won .inner_percentage.G { padding-top: 5px; Nov. 10, 2022, In Texas, majority-Hispanic counties also swung to the right, but to a much lesser degree than in Florida. font-size: 90%; event.srcElement.innerText = '[hide]'; Republicans would need just two tossup seats beyond what they are favored to win. The outcomes of the races in these three states will decide the balance of power in the Senate. For Republicans, the number increased 94% from 13 in 2020 to 31 in 2022. flex: 0 0 175px; The 2022 United States Senate election in Iowa was held on November 8, 2022 to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Iowa. padding: 2px; The polls just closed in Montana, Utah and parts of Nevada, Idaho and Oregon. In Floridas closely watched governors race, Gov. } Chuck Grassley is committed to putting the well-being of Iowans & America first. .mw-body #mw-content-text th.votebox-results-cell--text { The Iowa Poll, which was conducted by Selzer & Co., shows likely voters are reacting favorably to that part of his biography. } Was early voting available to all voters? } .mw-body #mw-content-text th.votebox-results-cell--text { } , Adrian Fontes, a Democrat, defeated Mark Finchem, a G.O.P. A new poll in the Iowa U.S. Senate race shows Republican Sen. Chuck Grassley expanding his lead against Democrat candidate and former Navy Adm. Mike Franken. Nate Cohn chevron.removeClass('fa-chevron-up'); ", "SBA List's Candidate Fund PAC Endorses IA Sen. Chuck Grassley for Re-election", "ELECTION ALERT: Tea Party Express Endorses Chuck Grassley for Senate in Iowa", "U.S. Chamber Endorses Chuck Grassley for U.S. Senate", "Can Mike Franken upset Iowa political icon Chuck Grassley? } Grassley, 89, is seeking an eighth term in the Senate this year. Still, he believes Grassley probably should have retired a long time ago., I think theres a time when you might be getting too old to serve, Donner said. margin: 8px auto; Since the October Iowa Poll showed Grassley with a slim lead, there has been little additional outside spending on the race by either party. } Polls just closed in 19 states and Washington, D.C. } .mw-body #mw-content-text .votebox .race_header h5.votebox-header-election-type { Nov. 8, 2022, Rural counties in Virginias 7th district are counting votes more quickly than its most populous and left-leaning county, Prince William. Senator Raphael Warnock of Georgia, a Democrat, won a runoff election to defeat Herschel Walker, a Trump-backed Republican and former football star. The current balance is 33 members of the GOP and 16 members of the Democratic party. . background-color: #db0000; .outer_percentage { The polls are now closed in Arizona, Colorado, Minnesota, New York, Wisconsin and several other states. The filing deadline was March 18, 2022. This can lead to incumbent versus incumbent contests if multiple incumbents choose to run in the same district. .results_row td:first-child { Nov. 8, 2022, Pennsylvania is home to a close Senate race between Lt. Gov. We look at the votes that have been reported so far and adjust our estimate based on what we expect from the votes that remain. line-height: 1.5em; border-bottom: 1px solid grey; The election filled the Class III Senate seat held by Chuck Grassley (R), who first took office in 1981. This was the largest guaranteed influx of newcomers to the Iowa General Assembly since 2014. background: #4c4c4c; } The table below shows the number and percentage of open seats in the Iowa State Senate from 2010 to 2022. left: 0; margin-bottom:16px; Lazaro Gamio Janet Mills of Maine. Elections for the Iowa State Senate took place in 2022. .candidateListTablePartisan td { font-weight: bold; , Elissa Slotkin, Democrat, wins re-election to the U.S. House to represent Michigans Seventh Congressional District. display: block; The polls just closed in North Carolina, Ohio and West Virginia. } The Iowa legislature approved the maps on October 28, 2021, by a vote of 48-1 in the state Senate and 93-2 in the state House. [3] It will be updated as information becomes available following the states candidate filing deadline. Albert Sun } The October poll showed some underlying weaknesses for the senator, particularly surrounding his age. . } display: inline-block; .thirdpartyname { Alicia Parlapiano Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined. } display: inline-block; Republishing the copyright Iowa Poll without credit to The Des Moines Register and Mediacom is prohibited. Tony Evers won a second term as governor of Wisconsin, giving Democrats a foothold in a critical presidential battleground. font-weight: 300; if(document.getElementsByClassName("reference").length==0) if(document.getElementById('Footnotes')!==null) document.getElementById('Footnotes').parentNode.style.display = 'none'; .leg-hnt-container { There's a big lead for Grassley with men, almost 2 to 1, she said. margin: 3px 0; Wisconsins Senate race is leaning toward Senator Ron Johnson, his chambers most endangered Republican incumbent, according to our estimates. @media screen and (max-width: 350px) { "I want to congratulate Admiral Franken on his victory . Alicia Parlapiano Iowans for Tax Relief Foundation is a partisan sponsor for the Republican Party. Grassley is rated highest on being a better reflection of Iowa values, with 56% of likely voters saying he best embodies that trait, compared with 35% saying Franken does. text-align: center; Among them: Pennsylvania, Michigan and Texas. This means that if this survey were repeated using the same questions and the same methodology, 19 times out of 20, the findings would not vary from the true population value by more than plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.
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